Mathematics

1. David Spiegelhalter

The Art of Uncertainty

National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging — without being patronising — introduction to the mathematics of the unknown

1. David Spiegelhalter

The Art Of Uncertainty

1. Nassim Nicholas , Taleb

The Black Swan

THE BLACK SWAN is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.

1. Nate Silver

On The Edge

1. Robert Stevens

Predictive Safety Analytics

Nearly all our safety data collection and reporting systems are backward-looking: incident reports; dashboards; compliance monitoring systems, and so on. This book shows how we can use safety data in a forward-looking, predictive sense. It contains real use cases where organizations have reduced incidents by employing predictive analytics.

Quantitative Risk Management in Agricultural Business

Hirbod Assa is a prominent researcher in the field of InsurTech and risk management with a focus on parametric risk transfer tools. Hirbod serves as a director at Model Library, a consulting firm specializing in risk management. Additionally he was a founding team and quantitative researcher at Edge Technologies, working on innovative risk management solutions. His academic career includes ten years at the universities of Essex, Kent, and Liverpool, focusing on commodity and systematic risk management by leveraging insurance risk capacity. Hirbod played a key role in the development of price index insurance for agricultural commodities at Stable Group Ltd, an achievement recognized by the University of Liverpool in their 2021 REF impact case submissions. He worked on machine learning projects with renowned banks such as Lloyds and MUFG. Hirbod holds a Ph.D. in financial mathematics from the University of Montreal and a Ph.D. in economics from Concordia University. Peng Liu is a Lecturer in the School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Essex since 2020. He received PhD in Probability and Statistics in Nankai University in 2015. Since then, he did postdoc in the University of Lausanne and University of Waterloo for two years respectively. His research focuses on Quantitative Risk Management, Actuarial Science,  and Extreme Value Theory. Simon (Meng) Wang is the Chief Technology Officer at Stable Group Limited, a London-based leading InsurTech firm specializing in supply chain parametric insurance. With a strong foundation in mathematical sciences and financial mathematics, Simon has extensive experience in developing advanced machine learning algorithms and quantitative models for risk management and financial derivatives. His innovative work includes the creation of automated systems for real-time hedging in incomplete markets and comprehensive risk simulation tools. Simon has also contributed to several notable publications in the field, focusing on cross-hedging, stochastic models, and agricultural goods pricing.