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The Black Swan
THE BLACK SWAN is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.
€ 17,00 -
The Art of Uncertainty
'Probably the UK's greatest living statistician' TelegraphFrom the UK's 'statistical national treasure', a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don't know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know
€ 17,00 -
Game Changers: Stories of the Revolutionary Minds Behind Game Theory
In this lively history of game theory, a gifted math educator and science writer explains for lay readers the uses and value of this innovative yet easy-to-understand approach to mathematical modeling. Essentially, game theory interprets life as a game with mathematical rules. By following the rules, decisions can be calculated that result in the greatest benefit for all participants.The author takes the reader from the 17th century through the Cold War to today's age of turbo capitalism. Along the way he introduces such leading contributors as Blaise Pascal in the 17th century, who invented the theory of probability; Ludwig Wittgenstein in the 20th century, who conceived of the world as a play of words; John Nash (the subject of A Beautiful Mind) in the 1950s, who laid the foundation of modern game theory; and today's practitioners who apply the theory to global finance and military strategy.As the author shows, game theory is more than a type of cost-benefit analysis; ultimately, it is a quest for meaning.
€ 18,00 -
The Improbability Principle
Why is it that incredibly unlikely phenomena actually happen quite regularly and why should we, in fact, expect such things to happen? This book is aimed at anyone with an interest in coincidences, probability or gambling.
€ 15,50