The Black Swan

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This title deals with this questions.

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected

Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling

It has altered modern thinking

Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot

The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works

Great fun... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling

The most prophetic voice of all

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an uncompromizing no-nonsense thinker for our times. He has spent his life immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor and researcher. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's School of Engineering. He is the author of the 4-volume INCERTO ( Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness , and The Bed of Procrustes ). Taleb refuses all awards and honours as they debase knowledge by turning it into competitive sports.