This book argues that today's climate change science undersells what we know with huge confidence and oversells what we know with little confidence, thereby misleading both the public and policy makers during important international debates and negotiations. Crucial reading for environmentalists and oil tycoons alike.
Climate is, in some respects, highly predictable; yet, in other respects, highly unpredictable. But there is no contradiction. The resolution of this seeming paradox in Predicting Our Climate Future leads in turn to a vision for how humankind must respond to this most important problem of all time.
A profound yet very accessible guide to climate science, highlighting the significant uncertainties without apology. This book explains clearly why doubt creates a greater and more urgent need to act now to build a better future.
The immense complexity of the climate system raises deep questions about what science can usefully say about the future. David Stainforth navigates philosophical and mathematical questions that could hardly be of greater practical importance. He questions what it is reasonable to ask of climate scientists and his conclusions challenge the way in which science should be conducted in the future.
Is the science settled? Are climate models rubbish? Stainforth's book serves up nuanced answers to big questions in climate science, in an easy conversational style.
A thoughtful exploration of the foundations and limitations of climate prediction that explains how its chaotic and probabilistic nature lead to deep uncertainty when assessing climate risk.
Predicting Our Climate Future is an erudite and very personal reflection on climate change, the state of climate science, and their implications for the decisions society needs to take. It should be top of the reading list for scientists, practitioners and anyone who wants to truly comprehend the challenge of climate prediction.
A provocative contribution to the literature of climate change.
Predicting Our Climate Future is an ambitious exploration of a critical topic. It is a recommended read for climate scientists, especially those trying to model the future, for the researchers-in many disciplines-that are focused on understanding and forecasting the physical and human impacts of the coming climate changes, and for policy makers engaged in climate issues.
Intelligent, accessible, well reasoned and working very hard to get it's teeth into a complex but vitally important issue.
Fascinating...[there is a] a refreshing honesty [in Stainforth's writing] about the limitations we have with certain kinds of prediction.
Stainforth is good at explaining the complexities [of climate modelling], leavening the highly technical bits with ... lots of relatable real-world analogies.
After studying Physics at Oxford, David Stainforth worked on ocean modelling and then studied for a Masters on Environmental Management before working as a renewable energy consultant. He returned to academia to pursue research on computer models of the atmosphere before joining Professor Myles Allen to develop the climateprediction.net project, a public-resource, distributed-computing project which engaged hundreds of thousands of people worldwide with climate modelling. He went on to an Associate Professor position at Exeter University and then to LSE, pursuing research on the philosophy of climate science, climate economics, climate modelling and climate decision making under deep uncertainty.